Solar wind forecast
PREDSTORM is our real-time solar wind forecast for the Sun-Earth L1 point. It is updated every 10 minutes,
and is based on a recurrence model using the NOAA real time solar wind,
provided by the DSCOVR or ACE spacecraft. Caution: This forecast only works for high-speed solar wind streams,
and will fail during times when solar storms, also known as coronal mass ejections, impact the Earth's magnetic field.
The first two plots show the same data and forecast, the third plot shows the NOAA data along with STEREO-A beacon data. STEREO-A is positioned close to Earth
in summer 2023, at a distance of 0.05 AU closer to the Sun, and thus forms a sub-L1 solar wind monitor. We use our own model, based on machine learning, to calculate the
geomagnetic Dst index from the solar wind recurrence model forecasts.
Bailey et al. (2020) presented a study in which STEREO-A in situ data was used
for an ambient solar wind forecast. This forms a baseline for techniques to be applied to data returned by the
ESA Vigil mission, starting with the early 2030s when Vigil will be stationed at the Sun--Earth L5 point.
PREDSTORM will then be able to include real-time data returned by Vigil.
The data shown in the plots are available in ASCII format in a 1 hour time resolution
and 1 min time resolution.
We take no responsibility or liability for the frequency of provision or accuracy of our forecasts, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with using the provided information.