This aurora model is based on the solar wind input from our real-time solar wind forecast (PREDSTORM) for the Sun-Earth L1 point. The forecast runs from the most recent simulation time to 24 hours in the future. The simulation runs every 4 hours, starting with 03:00 UT each day. The global view of the northern hemisphere is shown here. The model is OVATION Prime 2010 (OP10), a very well tested model giving the energy flux and visual probability (shown below) for several types of aurora. Work on an update to OVATION Prime 2013, the state-of-the-art aurora model in the world, is underway. Note: the current implementation of OP10 still needs to be debugged properly, so please use with caution. Also it works for slow and fast solar wind, but not yet during times when solar storms impact the Earth.
We take no responsibility or liability for the frequency of provision or accuracy of our forecasts, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with using the provided information.