Event: 2020_march_02_0

Parameter range for ensemble simulation:
angular half width (within ecliptic plane): 30 - 50°
direction of motion (derived from fixed-phi fitting): 126 - 146° (relative to STEREO-A)
inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 - 1 (1 means circular frontal shape)

From the HI measurements and within the given ranges of the CME frontal shape parameters ELEvoHI produced 275 runs, of which 5 predict an Earth arrival (~1.8%).

MISS!

ELEvoHI ensemble prediction is based on STEREO-A HI beacon data. Measurements are given below, first column is hours from 2020-03-02T00:00, second column is elongation.

30.9 4.3
35.1 6.8
37.0 8.0
39.1 9.2
50.8 14.2
53.0 15.0
55.1 16.0